Risk Measurement of Local Government Debt Based on Complex Networks: Taking China's Urban Investment Bonds as an Example

Abstract

For many countries, the systemic risk of local government debt is a matter of concern, but at present, there is little analysis in this area. The complex network based on information analysis provides an effective tool for analyzing the system risk between networks. This paper takes China as an example and takes the provincial urban investment bonds as the object for research. The regional network constructed with the interest rate data of urban investment bonds represents the overall systemic risk of these bonds. The main conclusions are as follows: provincial nodes in western and central areas (underdeveloped areas) are more important in the system, and they are more easier to form debt defaults. For an interconnected urban investment bond network, the higher the default risk of an individual, the greater the risk of the entire system. Finally, based on the indicators obtained from the provincial urban investment bond network model, this paper puts forward policy suggestions for the prevention of urban investment bond risks.