Abstract
The escape from the “Malthusian trap” is shown to tend to generate in a rather systematic way quite serious political upheavals. Some demographic structural mechanisms that generate such upheavals have been analyzed, which has made it possible to develop a mathematical model of the respective processes. The forecast of political instability in African and West Asian countries in 2012–2050 produced on the basis of this model is presented.
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CITATION STYLE
Korotayev, A., Zinkina, J., Kobzeva, S., Bozhevolnov, J., Khaltourina, D., Malkov, A., & Malkov, S. (2011). A Trap At The Escape From The Trap? Demographic-Structural Factors of Political Instability in Modern Africa and West Asia. Cliodynamics: The Journal of Quantitative History and Cultural Evolution, 2(2). https://doi.org/10.21237/c7clio22217
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