Early predictors of late childhood behavioural outcomes following very preterm birth

Abstract

Background Children born very preterm (VPT; ≤32 weeks' gestation) are at higher risk of developing behavioural problems, encompassing socio-emotional processing and attention, compared to term-born children. This study aimed to examine multi-dimensional predictors of late childhood behavioural and psychiatric outcomes in very preterm children, using longitudinal clinical, environmental, and cognitive measures. Methods Participants were 153 VPT children previously enrolled in the Evaluation of Preterm Imaging study who underwent neuropsychological assessments at 18-24 months, 4-7 years and 8-11 years as part of the Brain Immunity and Psychopathology following very Preterm birth (BIPP) study. Predictors of late childhood behavioural and psychiatric outcomes were investigated, including clinical, environmental, cognitive, and behavioural measures in toddlerhood and early childhood. Parallel analysis and exploratory factor analysis were conducted to define outcome variables. A prediction model using elastic-net regularisation and repeated nested cross-validation was applied to evaluate the predictive strength of these variables. Results Factor analysis revealed two key outcome factors in late childhood: externalising and internalising-socio-emotional problems. The strongest predictors of externalising problems were response inhibition, effortful control and internalising symptoms in early childhood (cross-validated R2=.256). The strongest predictors of internalising problems were autism traits and poor cognitive flexibility in early childhood (cross-validated R2=.123). Cross-validation demonstrated robust prediction models, with higher accuracy for externalising symptoms. Conclusions Early childhood cognitive and behavioural outcomes predicted late childhood behavioural and psychiatric outcomes in very preterm children. These findings underscore the importance of early interventions targeting cognitive development and behavioural regulation to mitigate long-term psychiatric risks in very preterm children.