Predictions of cancer mortality in Poland in 2020

Abstract

Introduction. The future burden of cancer deaths will be the effect of demography changes and the influence of the risk factors. Goal. Making prognosis of number of cancer deaths in Poland in 2020. Methodology. These predictions of number of cancer deaths in 2020 (all cancers and the most frequent cancers for men and women) has been based on the historical trends of cancer mortality in Poland in 2001-2010 and the demographical prognosis made by Central Statistical Office using the method of Hakulinen and Dyba. Results. There will be 58 147 cancer deaths in men and 45 970 deaths in women in 2020. Compare to the period 2006-2010 the number of cancer deaths in Poland will increase by 12.0% for men and by 13.9% for women. In 2020 the big increase in number of deaths of melanoma skin cancer and multiple myeloma for both sexes, colorectal and pancreatic cancers for men and lung, endometrial and brain cancers for women will be observed. Conclusions. The predicted increase in number of cancer deaths for Poland in 2020 will be the results of: the demographical changes, changes of the cancer risk factors, the participation in the screening programs and treatment improvement. © 2014 Versita and Springer-Verlag.