Towards 100% renewable energy in African megacities: A multi-dimensional assessment of Greater Cairo's transition pathway options

Abstract

Cities are significant contributors to global energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions, making their transition to 100% renewable energy at the heart of climate change mitigation efforts. A holistic analysis of the status of city-scale energy transition research is first presented, revealing multiple research gaps. To address these gaps, this study presents the first multi-dimensional investigation of transition pathway options for an African megacity, Greater Cairo. The techno-economic performance and socio-environmental impacts of six scenarios across multiple energy sectors are evaluated. The results reveal that Greater Cairo benefits from leapfrogging into renewable energy to sustainably power its development. By 2050, Greater Cairo's energy system will be heavily dependent on electricity and e-fuel imports from neighbouring Egyptian regions, emphasising the need for a timely nationwide transition. Locally, electricity generation will be dominated by solar photovoltaics, with prosumers supplying a substantial share. The transition also hinges on full sector coupling via direct electrification, storage, and power-to-X solutions. By 2050, the cost-optimal scenario reaches a 100% renewable energy share across all sectors while reducing the levelised cost of final energy by 20%. Furthermore, it results in almost 70% and 55% less cumulative CO2 and air pollutant emissions, respectively. The renewable energy transition also doubles energy sector jobs in Egypt's capital relative to 2020. These findings highlight the multi-faceted benefits of transitioning megacities to renewable energy and offer critical insights for policymakers in Egypt and other countries with similar socio-economic landscapes and resource endowments.