Mapping the path to a net-zero chemicals industry by long-term planning with changes in technologies and climate

Abstract

The chemical industry, along with many other industries, has pledged to reach net-zero emissions within the next few decades for greenhouse gases, plastics, etc. This requires systematic methods to guide investment in technologies and value-chain alternatives, and develop roadmaps. The proposed framework is a multiperiod planning model to guide optimal reforms in cradle-to-cradle life-cycle networks across the pledged time horizon. It aims to meet environmental targets while minimizing the total annualized cost of natural resources and the investment cost associated with adoption of novel technologies. This considers the evolution of technology readiness levels as S-curves or continuous time Markov-chains. Integrated Assessment models account for climate change, decarbonization due to energy mix changes, and carbon taxes. Multiple climate change scenarios and shared socioeconomic pathways are used to model future scenarios. In addition to providing roadmaps, the outputs can also be used to identify technologies that will be robust to future scenarios.