Climate policy action needed to reduce vulnerability of conservation-reliant grassland birds in North America

Abstract

Grassland birds have suffered dramatic population declines and are under threat of further grassland conversion. Simultaneously, grassland regions are projected to have high rates of future climate change. We assessed the vulnerability of grassland birds in North America under scenarios of global climate change reflecting the objectives of the Paris Agreement. The assessment incorporated model-based projections of range losses and gains as well as trait-based information on adaptive capacity. Nearly half (42%) of grassland birds were highly vulnerable during the breeding season under a 3.0° C increase in global mean temperature scenario representing current commitments under the Paris Accord. This proportion declined to 13% with a 2.0° C increase and to 8% with a 1.5° C increase over preindustrial global mean temperature. Regardless of scenario, more than 70% of grassland birds had some vulnerability to climate change. Policy actions beyond the present-day national commitments under the Paris Accord are needed to reduce vulnerability of grassland birds in a changing climate.