Age-Dependent Risk of Respiratory Syncytial Virus Infection: A Systematic Review and Hazard Modeling From Serological Data

Abstract

Background. There is no immunization campaign that currently exist for respiratory syncytial virus (RSV). Seroprevalence studies are critical for assessing epidemiological dynamics before and during an immunization program. A systematic literature review was conducted to summarize the evidence from seroprevalence studies on RSV. Methods. A systematic search of age-dependent RSV seroprevalence was conducted using the PubMed database and EMBASE. Age-dependent force of infections (FoI) and the decay rate of immunity were estimated. A mixture finite model was used, estimating the age-dependent disease state and the antibody concentrations in susceptible and infected or recovered populations. Results. Twenty-one studies were identified from 15 countries, with studies using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay being the most represented. Using a catalytic model, the age-dependent force of infection was estimated to be the lowest in infants aged 6 months to 1 year and increased in older age groups. The proportion ever-infected/recovered was estimated to be above 90% by 3 years of age. Conclusions. The number of seroprevalence studies covering a broad range of ages are limited. The age-dependent FoI indicated that the risk of infection was greatest among those aged >5 years. Additional data using valid assays are required to describe the transmission dynamics of RSV infection.