Monthly rainfall components in ambon city: Evidence from the serious time analysis

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to prove whether rainfall in Ambon City contains seasonal components based on the characteristics of monthly rainfall history data in Ambon City. The data used is monthly rainfall data in Ambon City 2005.01 - 2017.12. The data is time series data from the BMKG Meteorology Station observation in Maluku Province. The time series analysis method used is ARIMA / SARIMA and Holt-Winter Exponential Smoothing. The results of this study have a good level of accuracy, namely using the results of analysis based on the values of information criteria, Ljung-Box Test, and RMSE. The results of the analysis prove that rainfall in Ambon City has a seasonal pattern.