What is the meaning of a short-term earthquake forecast?

Abstract

In this chapter, some basic concepts and terminology in seismology and earthquake forecasting are introduced. These include magnitude estimation, earthquake preparation and activation zone. A list of new measurements available to complement seismological observations are described. A brief summary of the latest efforts in earthquake prediction/forecasting is presented. In chapter 1 we determine the concept of short-term precursors and propose a list that we consider to be reliable physical phenomena, which could be used in short-term earthquake forecasting.