Benchmarking household storm surge risk perceptions to scientific models in the Philippines

Abstract

Household perceptions of hazards play an important role in mobilizing efforts for disaster risk reduction. This research aimed to examine perceptions of storm surge in the Philippines through a case study of the Municipality of Carigara located in the province of Leyte. Surveys from 1,093 households were collected asking about perceived storm surge exposure. Building vulnerability indicators were combined with storm surge inundation models and household perceptions to compare differences in storm surge risk. More than half of households in modelled inundation zones either did not know their exposure or believed they were not exposed to 2-m surge heights and above. While there was alignment between modelled and perceived risk of low-level storm surge events, our results show a significant disconnect between household perceptions and probabilistic models for larger storm surge inundation events, pointing to continued gaps in storm surge knowledge in the Philippines.