Lightweight, early identification of at-risk CS1 students

Abstract

Being able to identify low-performing students early in the term may help instructors intervene or differently allocate course resources. Prior work in CS1 has demonstrated that clicker correctness in Peer Instruction courses correlates with exam outcomes and, separately, that machine learning models can be built based on early-term programming assessments. This work aims to combine the best elements of each of these approaches. We offer a methodology for creating models, based on in-class clicker questions, to predict cross-term student performance. In as early as week 3 in a 12-week CS1 course, this model is capable of correctly predicting students as being in danger of failing, or not, for 70% of the students, with only 17% of students misclassified as not at-risk when at-risk. Additional measures to ensure more broad applicability of the methodology, along with possible limitations, are explored.