Foresight on oilseed competitiveness: Exploring collectively the possible "futures"

Abstract

The objective of foresight (future studies) is to enlighten decision-makers, by exploring collectively the sphere of possible "futures" and bringing out different scenarios for the future. CETIOM has carried out such an approach in order to assess oilseed (rapeseed and sunflower) competitiveness in France and Europe, taking into account the European and worldwide context by 2010-2015. The competition between domestic oilseeds and other sources of fats takes place at all levels of production, transformation and consumption processes. Thus, this future study has involved about 150 people from several scientific fields, economic bodies and institutions. The overall methodology used has been designed by INRA and is based on a systemic view of the various issues addressed and requires graphic representation models. Seven strategic topics have been set up at the end of this work: agricultures and their relationships with the economic environment; the role of information on fat consumption; the consideration of nutritional recommendations made by the transformation industries; the evolution of animal feeding models; the place of oilseeds within production systems; oilseeds and the environmental challenge; the impact of non-food uses as a driven force for oilseed development. For each of these seven topics, various scenarios were drawn up as well as their consequences on oilseed competitiveness and on the future of the economic and sodal sectors concerned.