Elevated soil lead: Statistical modeling and apportionment of contributions from lead-based paint and leaded gasoline

Abstract

While it is widely accepted that lead-based paint and leaded gasoline are primary sources of elevated concentrations of lead in residential soils, conclusions regarding their relative contributions are mixed and generally study specific. We develop a novel nonlinear regression for soil lead concentrations over time. It is argued that this methodology provides useful insights into the partitioning of the average soil lead concentration by source and time over large residential areas. The methodology is used to investigate soil lead concentrations from the 1987 Minnesota Lead Study and the 1990 National Lead Survey. Potential litigation issues are discussed briefly.