Building an econometric model of selected factors' impact on stock price: A case study

Abstract

Fluctuation of stock price in commercial banks in developing countries such as Vietnam will reflect the business health of bank system and the whole economy. Good business management requires us to consider the impacts of multi macro factors on stock price, and it contributes to promoting business plan and economic policies for economic growth and stabilizing macroeconomic factors. By data collection method through statistics, analysis, synthesis, comparison, quantitative analysis to generate qualitative comments and discussion; using econometric method to perform regression equation and evaluate quantitative results, the article analyzed and evaluated the impacts of seven (7) macroeconomic factors on stock price of a joint stock commercial bank, Sacombank (STB) in Vietnam in the period of 201 4-2019, both positive and negative sides. The results of quantitative research, in a seven factor model, show that the increase in GDP growth, reduction in CPI and lending rate has a significant effect on increasing STB stock price with the highest impact coefficient, the second is decreasing the risk free rate. This research finding and recommended policy also can be used as reference in policy for commercial bank system in many developing countries.