ESCENARIO DE CAMBIO CLIMÁTICO DEL BOSQUE SIEMPREVERDE DEL PÁRAMO RESERVA DE PRODUCCIÓN DE FAUNA CHIMBORAZO-ECUADOR

Abstract

Background. Despite a large number of scientific disclosures on climate change issues, few studies show the effects on vegetation in high Andean ecosystems and especially within Protected Areas. Objective. Determine a predictive model using a radical scenario to establish the behavior of four species that make up the arboreal component of the forest remnants and their potential distribution for the year 2100. Methodology. By using 19 bioclimatic variables and the orography obtained from WorldClim, the QGIS software, MaxEnt and 221 occurrences of the four tree species, the current ecological niche was modeled and projected to 2100 based on the General Circulation Model (HadCM3) and the emissions of CO2 under the RCP 6.0 scenario. Results. In general, the result of the research envisions a highly negative outlook regarding the occupation area for 2100, determining that 125 ha will decrease due to the differentiation of temperature and precipitation (Bio7, Bio 14), however, 3734.63 ha will be created as new Proper sites to host these species due to the change that is specifically expected to the southeast of the reserve as a result of the increase in the planet's temperature. Implications. Results allow elaborating recommendations for adaptation to climate change and reducing future vulnerability. Conclusions. Due to the global importance that it represents for humanity and the complexity of the factors that influence the problem, a greater number of studies are necessary that contribute to a better understanding and contribute to the identification of risks and threats to generate timely adaptation strategies, mitigation and slowdown to the potential impacts of climate change.