A Hybrid AI-Stochastic Framework for Predicting Dynamic Labor Productivity in Sustainable Repetitive Construction Activities

Abstract

Accurate real-time prediction of labor productivity is crucial for the successful management of construction projects. However, it remains a significant challenge due to the dynamic and uncertain nature of construction environments. Existing models, while valuable for planning and post-analysis, often rely on historical data and static assumptions, rendering them inadequate for providing actionable, real-time insights during construction. This study addresses this gap by suggesting a novel hybrid AI-stochastic framework that integrates a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) network with Markov Chain modeling for dynamic productivity forecasting in repetitive construction activities. The LSTM component captures complex, long-term temporal dependencies in productivity data, while the Markov Chain models probabilistic state transitions (Low, Medium, High productivity) to account for inherent volatility and uncertainty. A key innovation is the use of a Bayesian-adjusted Transition Probability Matrix (TPM) to mitigate the “cold start” problem in new projects with limited initial data. The framework was rigorously validated across four distinct case studies, demonstrating robust performance with Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) values predominantly in the “Good” range (10–20%) for both the training and test datasets. A comprehensive sensitivity analysis further revealed the model’s stability under data perturbations, though performance varied with project characteristics. By enabling more efficient resource utilization and reducing project delays, the proposed framework contributes directly to sustainable construction practices. The model’s ability to provide accurate real-time predictions helps minimize material waste, reduce unnecessary labor costs, optimize equipment usage, and decrease the overall environmental impact of construction projects.