Continued increases in the intensity of strong tropical cyclones

Abstract

In a 2008 paper, using satellite-derived wind speed estimates from tropical cyclones over the 25-yr period 1981-2006, we showed the strongest tropical cyclones getting stronger. We related the increasing intensity to rising ocean temperatures consistent with theory. Oceans have continued to warm since that paper was published, so the intensity of the strongest cyclones should have continued upward as well. Here I show that this is the case, with increases in the upper-quantile intensities of global tropical cyclones amounting to between 3.5% and 4.5% in the period 2007-19 relative to the earlier base period (1981-2006). All basins individually show upward intensity trends for at least one upper quantile considered, with the North Atlantic and western North Pacific basins showing the steepest and most consistent trends across the quantiles.