Potential effects of climate change on the distribution of an endangered species: Melanophryniscus montevidensis (Anura: Bufonidae)

Abstract

Species distributions are linked with climate. Among the effects predicted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change are changes in precipitation patterns and increases in mean temperatures-factors potentially having a major impact on threatened, rare, and endemic species. Using models to forecast possible changes in the distributions of different species under different climate-change scenarios, we can identify probable impacts on species and build effective conservation strategies. We modeled the effects of two climate-change scenarios on the geographical distribution of the regionally endemic bufonid, Melanophryniscus montevidensis, categorized as vulnerable by the IUCN and as endangered by the Uruguayan Red List of amphibians. Ecological niche models were generated to describe the present and possible future distributions of this species in 2050 and 2080, given severe (A2) and moderate (B2) climatic changes. Legacy data for M. montevidensis were obtained from Uruguayan biocollections and climate data were acquired from the WorldClim database. At present, M. montevidensis could occur along the Atlantic Uruguayan coast and a small section of the southern Brazilian coast. However, changes in climate may lead to a loss of suitable environmental conditions for this toad; thus, this endangered species is vulnerable and in urgent need of protection. © 2013 Departamento de Ciências Biológicas - ESALQ - USP.