Pathway analysis of India’s fish meal import and export trade using time series data

Abstract

The current paper examines the trade dynamics of fish meal import and export under the HS code 230120 to assess the market dynamics, forecast future movements, as well as to identify key challenges and opportunities in India’s fishmeal trade. India’s fish meal trade shows contrasting trend, with imports recording negative growth, while exports achieved an average compound annual growth rate of 21.3%. A trade balance index score of nearly 0.9, further indicates that India has emerged as a source market rather than a destination market for fish meal in the global arena, especially after 2010. South-East Asian countries like Bangladesh, Vietnam, Thailand, Saudi Arabia, Malaysia and China are the main export destinations for fish meal from India; collectively accounting for almost 80% of the total export volume and value. In the future, rising aquaculture production and growing global demand for fish meal from India, are expected to drive both domestic consumption of fish meal by the feed industry and a gradual increase in imports, particularly with the recent reduction of import duty from 15 to 5%.