Climate variability and its impact on cropping pattern and agricultural GDP in central dry zone of Karnataka, India

Abstract

Understanding effects of climate variability on agricultural systems is an vital present need. Hence a study was carried out in climatically most vulnerable district of Karnataka, i.e., Chitradurgausing primary data from 120sample farmers and secondary data on rainfall pattern (1901-2015), temperature (1971-2015), area, production and productivity of crops (1956-2011). The data was analysed using tools like homogeneity test, markovchain analysis and autoregressive error correction model. As per homogeneity test there were no shifts or breaks in the long-term trend of annual rainfall and in rainy days (≥2.5 mm).Whereas an upward shift in total non-rainy days (< 2.5 mm) was observed. Both daily maximum (1.22 °C) and minimum (1.36 °C) temperature has increased. The shift in long-term trend of climate parameters was most prominent after 1990’s. Markov chain analysis highlighted transition from water intensive irrigated crops such as sugarcane and areca nut to rainfed crops. Positive impact of quantum of south-west monsoon rainfall on the district agricultural gross domestic product was proved from autoregressive error correction model. Climate variability and climate change are inevitable and pose problem of losing agricultural income for the farmers particularly in the rainfed areas. The rainfed farmers should be provided agricultural inputs at subsidized prices and assisted with the income support to continue the agricultural practices. To improve the farmers’ resilience to climate variability an effective implementation of existing schemes pertaining to afforestation, water harvesting structures, ground water recharge techniques need to be given boost.