Balance-Minded Voting in Post-2012 Japan: Why the Largest Opposition Party Receives Votes from Non-Supporters

Abstract

This study employs survey data to characterize a new kind of strategic voting behavior in post-2012 Japan. Since the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) returned to power in 2012, it has been winning every national election, while the opposition camp has been fragmented into many parties, none of which has been seen as a viable contender to the LDP. In this situation in which the LDP will certainly win, there are citizens who vote for an opposition party, especially the largest one, though they do not believe it is capable of governing the country. Their concern is the balance of seats among the parties. These strategic voters tend to be older, more educated, richer, and more attentive to political news than those who genuinely support the opposition.