Validation of reanalysis Southern Ocean atmosphere trends using sea ice data

Abstract

Reanalysis products are an invaluable tool for representing variability and long-Term trends in regions with limited in situ data, and especially the Antarctic. A comparison of eight different reanalysis products shows large differences in sea level pressure and surface air temperature trends over the high-latitude Southern Ocean, with implications for studies of the atmosphere's role in driving ocean-sea ice changes. In this study, we use the established close coupling between sea ice cover and surface temperature to evaluate these reanalysis trends using the independent, 30-year sea ice record from 1980 to 2010. We demonstrate that sea ice trends are a reliable validation tool for most months of the year, although the sea ice-surface temperature coupling is weakest in summer when the surface energy budget is dominated by atmosphere-To-ocean heat fluxes. Based on our analysis, we find that surface air temperature trends in JRA55 are most consistent with satellite-observed sea ice trends over the polar waters of the Southern Ocean.