High values of liver stiffness play an important role in stratifying the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma in cirrhotic hepatitis C patients

Abstract

Background – Evaluate the role of liver stiffness measurement (LSM) by transient elastography (TE) as a risk factor for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) occurrence in a prospective cohort of Brazilian hepatitis C virus (HCV) patients with cirrhosis. Methods – A cohort of 99 consecutive HCV patients was included between 2011 and 2016 with baseline LSM ≥12 kilopascals (kPa). Baseline variables were evaluated and HCC occurrence was documented. Kaplan-Meier methods with a log-rank test and the use of cox univariate and multivariate analysis assessed the association between variables and clinical results. Results – The mean age was 57.8±10.6 years. In a follow-up over a mean of 3.3 years, 20 (20.2%) patients developed HCC. In univariate logistic regression analysis, variables associated with HCC occurrence were: lower platelet count (P=0.0446), higher serum alpha-fetoprotein (P=0.0041) and bilirubin (P=0.0008) values, higher Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score (P=0.0068) and higher LSM (P=0.0354). LSM evaluated by TE was independently associated with HCC development, and the best cut-off value for higher HCC risk was >21.1 kPa (HR: 5.548; 95%CI: 1.244–24.766; P=0.025). Conclusion – A high value of liver stiffness relates substantially to an increased risk for HCC occurrence in Brazilian patients with cirrhosis due to HCV.