The Impact of COVID-19 on Crime: A Study from the Spatial-temporal Perspective in the Montgomery County, AL

Abstract

The policies curbing the spread of COVID-19 can influence the chance of committing a crime. This study aimed to investigate the impacts of COVID-19 on the spatial and temporal patterns of crime in Montgomery City, AL, by wavelet analysis, spatial point test, and machine learning tools. We obtained the crime case records between January 1, 2015 to March 12, 2021 from the police department in the City of Montgomery, and we downloaded demographical data from the U.S. Census. Results show that the overall crime rate in Montgomery decreased during the COVID-19 pandemic. However, crime rates would increase in a shorter time than COVID-19 confirmed cases when the social activities increased. Meanwhile, spatial distributions of simple assault, burglary, and vehicle theft had clustered in Montgomery business and shopping areas. These findings are helpful for the police institution in preventing and minimizing crimes as new COVID-19 variants emerge in the future.