Police risk assessment and case outcomes in missing person investigations

Abstract

In England and Wales, police consider potential harm in missing person investigations using graded risk assessment. Using 4746 missing person reports made to one police force in 2015, we investigate the extent to which age, sex and police risk factors predict high-risk classifications and harmful case outcomes. We find age, sex and specific risk factors including out of character behaviour and suicide risk increased the likelihood of high-risk classifications, whilst other risk factors including physical/mental illness and drug/alcohol misuse increased the likelihood of harmful outcomes. We also find certain risk factors reduced the likelihood of high-risk classifications and harmful outcomes.