Forecasting Future Earthquakes with Machine Learning Models Based on Seismic Prediction Zoning

Abstract

Predicting future seismic trends and occurrence of earthquakes remains a long-standing challenge in seismology. Despite substantial efforts to unravel the physical mechanisms underlying earthquake occurrence, currently, no well-defined physical or statistical model is capable of reliably predicting major earthquakes. However, machine learning methods have demonstrated exceptional proficiency in identifying patterns within large-scale datasets, offering a promising avenue for enhancing earthquake prediction performance. Within the framework of machine learning, this study has developed a feature extraction method based on seismic prediction zoning, improving the effectiveness of machine learning-based earthquake prediction. The research findings indicate that the ensemble learning Stacking method, which is based on seismic prediction zoning, exhibits superior performance and high robustness in predicting the annual maximum earthquake magnitude. Additionally, the long short-term memory (LSTM) method demonstrates commendable performance within specific tectonic zones (e.g., the southwestern Yunnan region), providing valuable guidance for analyzing seismic trends in these regions.