Assessing rainfall-runoff models for climate change: simple and differential split-sample tests for conceptual and artificial intelligence models

Abstract

In this study, the performance of two popular conceptual models, a classic artificial intelligence (AI) model, and a deep learning model is compared using simple and differential split-sample tests (SSST and DSST). Finally, the two conceptual models and the classic AI model are combined employing a model ensemble technique. The SSST and DSST schemes confirmed the ability of both types of models (conceptual and AI) to capture the hydrological response to rainfall events, although the conceptual models showed a better performance in the DSST scheme. The ensemble technique enhanced the modelling performance up to 22% and 35% in the calibration and verification steps. This study highlights the importance of applying DSST using existing data to build further confidence in model projections, and suggests that the use of model ensemble techniques combining conceptual and AI models can enhance the performance of rainfall-runoff modelling in the context of climate change.