A control-theoretic model of atherosclerosis

Abstract

We propose a control-theoretic aggregate model of the progression of atherosclerosis plaque, a chronic inflammatory disease of the arterial wall, to study the basic features of this disease. In the model, we exploit the role of inflammation in the disease progression, and use statins—drugs commonly recommended in atherosclerosis—to control this progression. We use a logistic function to allow for constrained growth of plaque. In the model, both the patient’s age and overall health impact the plaque growth and its sensitivity to statins. The model parameters are estimated using original data, or calibrated using published research as well as our own clinical and laboratory studies. We contend that our model helps to gauge the statins’ impact on a patient’s plaque thickness, hence the disease’s progression and cardiovascular risk, without requiring artery scans.