Regionalism and ECOWAS trade performance: A gravity model approach

Abstract

This paper investigates bilateral trade flows and the level of openness across ECOW-AS-15 nations for the period of 1981-2013 using Poisson pseudo maximum likelihood (PPML), fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS) and canonical cointegrating regression (CCR). Comparing the results, the ECOWAS dummy variable was negative and significant in all of the estimation techniques. Financial openness under FMOLS and CCR was negatively significant. Trade openness was found to be negatively significant only under PPML. The empirical results indicate that a common border and distance have had a strong effect on ECOWAS trade; also there is a negative effect of trade flow among ECOWAS members. Moreover, the level of financial and trade openness among members impedes the level of trade flows on integration. The estimated results highlight the underlying significance of accurately accounting for endogeneity when estimating trade policy impacts.