Food Security Risks of Countries along the Belt and Road in the Context of the COVID-19 Pandemic

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic has triggered concerns about the global food crisis, thus identification of food security risks constitutes an important basis for responding to the influence of the pandemic. In this study, the influence path of the pandemic on food security was analyzed first. Then, the risk nodes of the trade network of countries along the Belt and Road were identified by complex network analysis. Further, food security risks were comprehensively assessed, and dominant risk types were systematically determined by using a four-dimensional integrated food security risk assessment model. According to the results: (1) The COVID-19 pandemic adds to the uncertainty of food security, lowers the efficiency and stability of international trade, highlights the importance of domestic supply, and exposes the vulnerability of external dependence. (2) The Main Cereals Trade Network (MCTN) presents typical scale-free features in the Belt and Road, and core countries significantly affect the stable service of the network. However, as spreading of COVID-19, these countries may pose potential risks to the global food market in the future, by disrupting MCTN. (3) The possession of cereals less than 200 kg/per in 19 countries along the Belt and Road, nine countries have an external dependence of above 90%, and eight countries have an import concentration of above 90%. With the pandemic, 27 countries’ Food Security Risks Indices (FSRI) increase over 1.5 times. (4) Roughly 25%, 40%, and 15% of the countries are dominated by the pandemic risk, dual risks, and compound risks, respectively. About half a number of the countries shows very high or high FSRI level. Specifically, seven countries are dominated by the compound risk. Ten countries are dominated by the domestic supply risk and the pandemic risk. Six countries are dominated by the domestic supply risk and the import concentration risk.