Future demand for electricity generation materials under different climate mitigation scenarios

Abstract

Achieving global climate goals will require prodigious increases in low-carbon electricity generation, raising concerns about the scale of materials needed and associated environmental impacts. Here, we estimate power generation infrastructure demand for materials and related carbon-dioxide-equivalent (CO2eq) emissions from 2020 to 2050 across 75 different climate-energy scenarios and explore the impact of climate and technology choices upon material demand and carbon emitted. Material demands increase but cumulatively do not exceed geological reserves. However, annual production of neodymium (Nd), dysprosium (Dy), tellurium (Te), fiberglass, and solar-grade polysilicon may need to grow considerably. Cumulative CO2 emissions related to materials for electricity infrastructure may be substantial (4–29 Gt CO2eq in 1.5°C scenarios) but consume only a minor share of global carbon budgets (1%–9% of a 320 Gt CO2eq 1.5°C 66% avoidance budget). Our results highlight how technology choices and mitigation scenarios influence the large quantities of materials mobilized during a future power sector decarbonization.