Global Economic Policy Uncertainties and International Oil Price Volatility Under Alternative Market Conditions

Abstract

This study mainly investigates the predictability prowess of global economic policy uncertainty (GEPU) for oil price volatility under different market episodes. The results clearly show that the GEPU-oil price volatility nexus is episodic in nature. While evidence of mean reverting stance is confirmed across the sectionalized market phases, the long-term impact of GEPU in the nexus holds true for the Covid-19 pandemic, Russia-Ukraine war, and oil price shock episodes.