PREDICTION OF CLIMATE CHANGE-INDUCED SEA LEVEL RISE IN CHILIKA-PURI COAST OF ODISHA, INDIA: WITH SPECIAL PROMINENCE ON ADAPTATION ACTION STRATEGY FRAMEWORK

Abstract

Predictions of changes in coastal habitat boundaries due to expected relative Sea Level Rise (SLR) allow advanced preparation for particular parts of the coastline to mitigate and offset anticipated losses and reduce risks to coastal growth and human safety. Thus, a better understanding of SLR and its impacts are essential to anticipate risks associated with SLR. The first move in such direction will be to project SLR at the local level at various time scales and scenarios formulated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). This research aims to project SLR using IPCC Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios and identify coastal natural resources and their dependent human communities along Chilika-Puri coast in Odisha, India, those in the risk of impacts and vulnerable to projected SLR. This study also aims at exploring suitable adaptation choices for informed decision making. IPCC criteria for assessing the SLR were followed in this research work. Future SLR projections were developed as per IPCC’s RCP scenarios using the SimCLIM tool. The observed relative sea level trend is 1.94 ± 0.96 mm/yr. The projected SLR for the Chilika-Puri coast indicated 38.88 to 74.81 cm under high emission scenarios for the year 2100. To combat the potential impacts of SLR in the study area, a comprehensive adaptation strategy framework (both planned and anticipatory adaptation) is proposed, with relevance to the study zone, which will also have global implications.