Meteorological influences on dengue transmission in Pakistan

Abstract

Objective To identify the influences of local and regional climate phenomena on dengue transmission in Lahore District of Pakistan, from 2006 to 2014. Methods Time-series models were applied to analyze associations between reported cases of dengue and climatic parameters. The coherence trend of regional climate phenomena (IOD and ENSO) was evaluated with wavelet analysis. Results The minimum temperature 4 months before the dengue outbreak played the most important role in the Lahore District (P = 0.03). A NINO 3.4 index 9 months before the outbreaks exhibited a significant negative effect on dengue transmission (P = 0.02). The IOD exhibited a synchronized pattern with dengue outbreak from 2010 to 2012. The ENSO effect (NINO 3.4 index) might have played a more important role after 2012. Conclusions This study provides preliminary results of climate influences on dengue transmission in the Lahore District of Pakistan. An increasing dengue transmission risk accompanied by frequent climate changes should be noted. Integrating the influences of climate variability into disease prevention strategies should be considered by public health authorities.