Correlation between the migration scale index and the number of new confirmed coronavirus disease 2019 cases in China

Abstract

In late December, 2019, patients of atypical pneumonia due to an unidentified microbial agent were reported in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China. Subsequently, a novel coronavirus was identified as the causative pathogen which was named SARS-CoV-2. As of Feb 12, 2020, more than 44 000 cases of SARS-CoV-2 infection have been confirmed in China and continue to expand. Provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions of China have launched first-level response to major public health emergencies one after another from Jan 23.2020, which means restricting movement of people among provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions. The aim of this study was to explore the correlation between the migration scale index and the number of confirmed coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19) cases and to depict the effect of restricting population movement. In this study Excel 2010 was used to demonstrate the temporal distribution at the day level and SPSS 23.0 was used to analyze the correlation between the migration scale index and the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases. We found that since January 23, 2020, Wuhan migration scale index has dropped significantly and since January 26, 2020, Hubei province migration scale index has dropped significantly. New confirmed COVID-19 cases per day in China except Wuhan gradually increased since January 24, 2020, and showed a downward trend from February 6, 2020. New confirmed New confirmed New confirmed New confirmed New confirmed New confirmed COVID-19 cases per day in China except Hubei province g cases per day in China except Hubei province g cases per day in China except Hubei province g cases per day in China except Hubei province gradually increaseradually increase radually increaseradually increaseradually increase radually increase radually increaseradually increase radually increased since January 24, 2020, and since January 24, 2020, and then showed a downward trend downward. January 10 to January 23 and January 11 to January 24 was correlated with the number of new confirmed COVID-19 cases per day in China except Wuhan from January 22 to February 4. Hubei province migration scale index from January 10 to January 23 and January 11 to January 24 was correlated with the number of new confirmed COVID-19 cases per day in China except.