Civilian control and casualty sensitivity in a pacifist democracy: Evidence from Japan's 2021 exigent evacuation mission*

Abstract

How do citizens in pacifist democracies respond to military operations under exigency conditions? We examine this question based on a preregistered, real-time survey experiment we fielded in Japan during the August 2021 Self-Defense Forces (SDF) evacuation from Afghanistan. Building on research in international relations, we test whether Japanese citizens prioritize civilian control and how sensitive they are to military casualties. Our results challenge conventional assumptions. First, respondents did not differentially penalize an illegal mission ordered by a military commander (rather than an elected leader), despite the explicit legality cue. Second, while support declined sharply when SDF casualties were reported, nearly 30% of respondents still endorsed the operation. These findings complicate the common portrayal of Japanese public opinion as uniformly pacifist and suggest greater heterogeneity in attitudes toward military risk than conventional portrayals imply. The study contributes to scholarship on democratic accountability, civil–military relations, and public opinion in non-Western democracies under exigency.