Quantitative Risk Assessment of Vibrio parahaemolyticus Toxi Infection Associated with the Consumption of Roasted Shrimp (Penaeus monodon)

Abstract

In this study, a risk assessment on Vibrio parahaemolyticus infections was carried out in order to estimate the likelihood of gastroenteritis for Cameroonians after consumption of roasted shrimp (Penaeus monodon). The Codex Alimentarius Commission framework was used in this study. Based on the distribution of total V. parahaemolyticus in shrimp and literature information indicating that nonhaemolysing carrier strains could be pathogenic to humans, the cooking, and consumption patterns, the daily exposure level generated in this study, and the dose-response model from other studies, the infectious risk was evaluated and quantified by the Monte Carlo simulation. This simulation was realized based on 10,000 iterations using the Model Risk software, version 4.0, in combination with Microsoft Excel. To better quantify the exposure of consumers and the resulting risk of infection, several scenarios reflecting the minimal, average, and maximal exposures were undertaken. According to the results, the 90% confidence intervals for minimum and maximum exposures ranged from 15 to 24 colony-forming units per day (cells/day) and from 160 to 228 cells/day, respectively. Based on the modal scenario, 90% of the population consuming this shrimp is exposed to V. parahaemolyticus loads ranging from 74 to 110 cells/day, indicating a risk of infection ranging from 1.2 to 1.8 cases per million of consumption. The estimated number of annual disease cases based on annual production is between 1 and 10 cases. This reflects a relatively low risk of infection for roasted shrimp. Good hygiene practices during handling, cooking, and storage may help reduce the actual risk.