Using Rigid Microplate Motions to Detect the Stress Buildup Preceding Large Earthquakes: A Feasibility Test Based on Synthetic Models

Abstract

Assessing the temporal evolution of stresses along seismogenic faults is typically done by combining geodetic observations collected near the locations of previous large earthquakes with modeling of the interseismic, coseismic, and postseismic deformation. Here we explore whether it is feasible to link the charge phase of large earthquakes to rigid microplate motions, which can be inferred from geodetic observations that are instead collected further away from crustal faults. We use numerical simulations of the dynamics and associated kinematics of an idealized, rigid microplate subject to stress buildups and drop-offs from a series of earthquakes. Simulations span the charging cycle of a single 6.5