Response of Eurasian Temperature to Barents–Kara Sea Ice: Evaluation by Multi-Model Seasonal Predictions

Abstract

Barents–Kara (BK) sea ice conditions are considered a potential source of seasonal predictability in the midlatitudes, but confirmation or refutation of this possibility remains elusive. We focused on the Warm Arctic–Cold Eurasia (WACE) pattern and evaluated whether BK sea ice is related to winter conditions over Eurasia in multi-model seasonal predictions. In the models analyzed, the WACE index is strongly depended on the BK temperature and did not rigorously reflect a sea ice–Eurasia causal link. The autumn BK sea ice anomaly was not a precursor of winter atmospheric conditions over Eurasia. Rather, the winter atmospheric circulation likely drives both winter BK sea ice and Eurasian temperature. However, the predicted winter sea ice–Eurasia links are likely weaker than the observed. This contrast is speciously related to the modest sea ice variance, but the actual influence of BK sea ice variation on Eurasian temperature anomalies is still questionable.