Do Zambian farmers manage climate risks?

Abstract

This study investigates production responses to climate risk among farmers in Zambia by combining historical rainfall with nationally representative household data. After identifying the importance of January and February rainfall in maize production, we define these months' historical rainfall variations as the climate risk index. We then relate this index to agricultural decisions. Results indicate little crop or plot diversifications in response to weather risks. Conversely, farmers in high-climate-risk regions apply less fertilizer and consequently achieve lower maize yields than their counterparts in low-risk regions. Overall, Zambian farmers manage climate risk by underinvesting risky inputs at the expense of returns.