Forecast of changes in air temperatures and heat indices in the sevastopol region in the 21st century and their impacts on viticulture

Abstract

Climate is a limiting factor in viticulture, as it defines favorable areas, grape cultivars, and agrotechnical activities. In the Sevastopol region, viticulture is the main and promising agricultural branch. Using the outputs of the regional climate models from the CORDEX project, the projections of agroclimatic conditions in the Sevastopol region for two future periods (2021–2045 and 2046–2070) under two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) were obtained. The results in our study show the trend of temperature indices rise (average growing season temperature, effective heat sum, Winkler and Huglin indices) and the region’s transition to higher classes, especially during the second future period (2046–2070). However, despite the higher temperature indices, the Sevastopol region will remain suitable for the growing of grapes cultivars with all ripening periods.