Les tensions sur l'EAU en Europe et dans le bassin méditerranéen. Des crises de l'EAU d'ici 2050

Abstract

Climate change will induce a rainfall decrease, especially in the Mediterranean region. There will be also a reduction of snow cover and ice sheet in altitude, causing a runoff decrease on rivers fed by spring and summer snow and ice melting, at the time of freshwater peak demand. Climate change and other global changes (ie demography) combine their effects. Groundwater over-exploitation induces a lowering of the water table, and water quality degradation. Important consequences are expected for agriculture, hydro renewable energy generation, water quality, aquatic ecosystems and biodiversity, economy development, and population displacements. Major water crisis can be expected by 2050 or earlier. Between the Northern and Southern banks of the Mediterranean, there are differences, but the situation is by many aspects similar, of course much more severe on the South than the North. Adaptation measures do exist: demand management, new agricultural practices, water recycling, reservoir building and desalinisation plants as well as the improvement of efficiency and of production, transportation and distribution systems. The implementation of those solutions requires political decisions and economical inputs. Governance adaptation should be developed to improve the water crisis anticipation capacity.