Impact of the “Class B Infectious Disease Class B Management” Policy on the Passenger Volume of Urban Rail Transit: A Nationwide Interrupted Time Series Study

Abstract

Between 2019 and 2022, passenger volume on China’s urban rail transit system sharply declined due to strict COVID-19 control measures. On 8 January 2023, China implemented the “Class B infectious disease Class B management” policy, marking a significant shift towards a more relaxed approach to epidemic control. The main objective of this study is to evaluate the immediate and lasting effects of this policy on urban rail transit passenger volume. We used interrupted time series (ITS), combined with quasi-Poisson regression models and counterfactual analysis, to analyze monthly urban rail transit operation data covering the period from January 2021 to June 2024 for 42 cities. Our analysis shows that, relative to the expected trend without any intervention, monthly average passenger volume increased by approximately 101.34% after the policy’s implementation, with significant immediate effects observed in 41 cities and significant lasting effects observed in 33 cities. The study concludes that the “Class B infectious disease Class B management” policy has generally promoted the nationwide recovery of urban rail transit passenger volume, although with significant heterogeneity across cities. This result indicates that the reduction in travel restrictions and the restoration of public safety, resulting from the relaxation of COVID-19 prevention and control measures, contributed to the overall recovery of urban rail transit. This study not only provides innovative methodological insights but also offers valuable guidance on developing more effective urban planning strategies and urban rail transit operational measures in the post-pandemic era.