Influenza-associated mortality in Australia, 2010 through 2019: High modelled estimates in 2017

Abstract

Introduction: In Australia, the 2017 and 2019 influenza seasons were severe. High-dose or adjuvanted vaccines were introduced for ≥65 year-olds in 2018. Aim: To compare influenza-associated mortality in 2017 and 2019 with the average for 2010–2019. Methods: We used time series modelling to obtain estimates of influenza-associated death rates for influenza A(H1N1)pdm09, A(H3N2) and B in Australia, in persons of all ages and <65, 65–74 and ≥75 years. Estimates were made for pneumonia and influenza (P&I, 2010–2018), respiratory (2010–2018), and all-cause outcomes (2010–2019). Results: During 2010 through 2018 (and 2019 for all-cause), influenza was estimated to be associated with an annual average of 2.1 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.9, 2.4), 4.0 (95% CI 3.4, 4.6), and 11.6 (95% CI 8.4, 15.0) P&I, respiratory and all-cause deaths per 100,000 population, respectively. Influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 was estimated to be associated with less than one quarter of influenza-associated P&I and respiratory deaths, while A(H3N2) and B were each estimated to contribute approximately equally to the remaining influenza-associated deaths. In 2017, the respective rates were 7.8 (95% CI 7.1, 8.4), 12.3 (95% CI 10.9, 13.6) and 26.0 (95% CI 20.8, 32.0) per 100,000. In 2019, the all-cause estimate was 20.8 (95% CI 14.9, 26.7) per 100,000. Conclusions: Seasonal influenza continues to be associated with substantial mortality in Australia, with at least double the average occurring in 2017. Age-specific monitoring of vaccine effectiveness is needed in Australia to understand higher mortality seasons.