Modelling cultural responses to disease spread in Neolithic Trypillia mega-settlements

Abstract

As zoonotic diseases coevolved with early agriculture, social distancing within dense human settlements could have conferred a selective advantage in terms of infection risk. Here, we consider the case of Trypillia mega-settlements after 4000 BC, as virulent diseases began affecting humans in the Black Sea region. Through epidemiological susceptible-infected-recovered-susceptible (SIRS) models situated on clustered networks and on a site plan of a Trypillia mega-settlement, we show the adaptive benefits of decreasing either occupation density or the frequency of interactions with other communities across the settlement. We explore critical thresholds in these parameters that may shed light on the fluctuations of population densities at Trypillia mega-settlements before and after approximately 3600 BCE. Our findings suggest that disease was probably a significant driver of human settlement patterns by late Neolithic times.