Assessing the vulnerability of livelihoods and ecosystems during the KwaZulu-Natal floods and their implications for climate resilience

Abstract

The April 2022 floods in KwaZulu-Natal (KZN), South Africa, were among the most devastating climate-induced disasters in the country’s history. Triggered by an intense cut-off low (COL) system, the event produced more than 300 mm of rainfall in 24 hours, causing 459 fatalities, displacing over 40,000 people, and generating economic losses exceeding $1.45 billion. More than 1,150 businesses were affected, with over 45,000 job losses, mostly among semi-skilled workers, deepening existing socio-economic inequalities. This study investigates the dual impacts of flooding on livelihoods and ecosystems by reviewing meteorological, economic, and ecological datasets to identify vulnerability patterns and assess response effectiveness. The findings show that rising temperatures and declining rainfall, particularly in coastal and valley regions, are increasing KZN’s exposure to droughts, heatwaves, and extreme flooding. Using a socio-ecological systems (SES) lens, the study highlights how ecological degradation and institutional fragility co-produced risk, especially in informal settlements and industrial zones. SWOT analysis shows considerable civil society engagement and access to climate data, but weak infrastructure and fragmented governance. Opportunities for green infrastructure and policy reform contrast with threats from rapid urbanisation and intensifying climate extremes. Together, these underscore the need for integrated, cross-sector resilience strategies in flood-prone regions.