Scenario Analysis of Electricity Demand Growth with Rural Electrification for the Evaluation of the Reliability and Sustainability of an off-Grid Microgrid System: A Case Study in Lao PDR†

Abstract

In order to design an optimal off-grid microgrid, understanding the factors influencing demand growth over time is essential to ensure the reliability and sustainability of an off-grid microgrid, particularly in rural areas. This study aims to identify these influencing factors through surveys and interviews to assess future demand growth following the implementation of an off-grid microgrid system in Lao PDR. The study highlights two primary factors, age and income level, that directly affect the number of desired electrical appliances, increasing future energy consumption. To ensure optimal sizing of off-grid components, a scenario analysis was conducted based on projected trends in energy consumption growth. The study proposes three scenarios, including restrictive (low), business-as-usual (medium), and optimistic (high) trends, along with the optimal combinations of off-grid microgrid components. The low energy consumption growth in 5th year is deemed appropriate for rural electrification in Laos and serves as a baseline model intended to guide policymakers and stakeholders in preventing system failure shortly after implementation. © 2025 The Author(s). IEEJ Transactions on Electrical and Electronic Engineering published by Institute of Electrical Engineers of Japan and Wiley Periodicals LLC.