Regional climate change expected in Hungary for 2071-2100

Abstract

Expected climate change estimations for the Carpathian basin and especially, Hungary, are summarized for the 2071-2100 period on the basis of the results from the project PRUDENCE. Different regional climate models (RCMs) used 50 km as the horizontal spatial resolution, and evaluated the A2 and B2 global emission scenarios. Results suggest that in case of temperature, a warming trend is evident in the Carpathian basin. The largest warming is expected in summer. The expected change of annual total precipitation is not significant. However, significantly large and opposite trends are expected in different seasons. Seasonal precipitation amount is very likely to increase in winter, while it is expected to decrease in summer, which implies that the annual distribution of precipitation is expected to be restructured. The wettest summer season may become the driest (especially in case of A2 scenario), and the driest winter is expected to be the wettest by the end of the 21st century. It is evident that all these climate processes affect agricultural activity and disaster management strategy. In order to prepare for the changing climate conditions, results of this regional climate change analysis may serve as basic information. © 2007, Penkala Bt.