Turkmenistan’s gas sector development scenarios based on econometric and swot analysis

Abstract

Turkmenistan is currently one of the key suppliers in the global natural gas market, and it is important to examine its competitive position in the world. The aim of this article is to forecast the development strategy of its gas sector. To achieve this aim, the authors first examined: (1) Turkmenistan’s position in the global gas market and the structure of its oil and gas sector; (2) the share of gas in Turkmenistan’s exports. They then conducted an analysis of the causal relationship between FDI and GDP. The above research made it possible to conduct a comprehensive SWOT analysis. Based on the SWOT analysis, three sector development scenarios were developed: pessimistic, realistic, and optimistic. On their basis, the gas sector in Turkmenistan can build strategies for its development, considering the impact of market and non-market factors.